Aperture Book of the Month - May 2025

Joseph S Nye Jr, ‘The Future of Power’. Public Affairs, 2011

Our latest book of the month has even more meaning for us than most of our selections as, remarkably we chose ‘The Future of Power’ before Joseph Nye’s death on 6th May.

Undoubtedly one of the world’s pre-eminent authorities on international relations, Nye’s commentaries were accessible, insightful, and prescient. He served two US presidential administrations, and - tellingly - was once invited to a private dinner with Xi Jinping to discuss his views on state interdependence and influence. ‘The Future of Power’ was published in 2011, but in selecting it as our book of the month, we felt it wholly relevant to return to it given current events.

Arguably, Nye’s landmark publications came in 1977 and 2002. They marked the passage through two generations immediately before and immediately after the fall of the Soviet Union. They also marked the journey of the USA within that context, immediately after the Vietnam War, and immediately before the invasion of Iraq. Nye’s thesis throughout explored the nature of state power based on the US perspective, but with relevance across the field of international relations. His message with his original co-author, Rober Keohane, was that a dependence upon military power is unsustainable and inefficient, and would become a declining force in a world of increased economic and social inter-dependence. As he described in a 2008 interview, Nye held that, “…humans are moved by ideas and values, which may not be tangible or hard, but it’s still a form of power. That led me to the idea of soft power”.

In ‘The Paradox of American Power’ (2002), Nye argued that the US possessed unprecedented military and economic (hard) power but had not adjusted its approach based on increasing globalisation. It’s unilateralism after the attacks of September 2001 made it vulnerable. Nye made careful distinction between ‘power over’ and ‘power with’ and coined the term ‘soft power’ to argue for a more nuanced and integrative approach.

In ‘The Future of Power’ Nye extended his thesis on the nature of state power and synthesised his observations on the context for its application. Whilst the ‘Western’ world was entirely focused on an apparent economic crisis, Nye recognised the changing nature of the international arena, with the rise of Asian and non-state actors and the impact of the digital age and cyber technology. At the core of the book is ‘Smart Power’, a considered mix of hard and soft power contingent on context; effective statecraft requires a judicious combination of both.

Nye recognises two major shifts in power dynamics: the transition of power away from a US-led ‘rules-based’ international order and the diffusion of power due to the rise of non-state organisations and actors. After Robert Dahl and Steven Lukes, he offers a model of ‘three faces’ of power. The first face is directly controlling, reliant on hard power to force others into compliance. The second shifts the use of power to controlling not other states, but the international agenda, setting the conditions to suit the objectives of those at the head of the table. The third face of power, however, uses ‘smart power’ not to direct or control but to manoeuvre and influence in more subtle and pervasive ways, often unseen by those it affects. The third face of power involves shaping preferences, beliefs and even their understanding of their own interests. The hidden agenda is more often than not much more powerful and difficult to oppose.

‘The Future of Power’ is America-centric but no less valuable today for that. Despite the transition and diffusion of power that Nye describes, the USA retains immense physical and ideological capacity. To quote Joseph Nye, “the United States must not succumb to costly and counterproductive protectionism”. To do so is to revert to a focus on hard power, brutal, direct, and unsophisticated. It misses the mark in a world where power is increasingly inter-connected at numerous levels and diffused beyond the point of complexity.

Nye’s central argument is all about interconnection; to be at the heart of a network is to be a powerful player. Even for the most powerful – or those that believe they are so – Nye’s warnings remain profoundly relevant today and should not be forgotten with his passing.